technomaster

04-16-2015, 12:13 PM

My short term obsession with G&T is a bit like the mathematical exercise you get watching sports, particularly baseball. For example, you may know that Derek Jeter is hitting .300 for the season, over the past 5 games is hitting .450 with a .600 OBP, and is 5-10 lifetime against Bartolo Colon.

Do we know what the outcome of the at bat is going to be? No... but relatively speaking, you feel pretty good about the position you're in if you're a Jeter fan.

Here are my calculations, feel free to debunk them or add more color to them. Making this a mathematical exercise takes away some of the anxiety of the "gosh I really hope we get in" piece. My calculations do not factor in siblings. A parent in another thread noted that at worst ~10 siblings citywide get 97/98, so at worst this decreases odds ~.3%.

689 kids are eligible with 99th percentile.

As a D2 (Manhattan) parent, we're only going to apply to Anderson (50 K slots), NEST+M (125), and TAG (50) - BSI & Q300 would be far too hectic commutes, more than what we'd be willing to subject our child to. NEST is a bit special this year - they've been nice enough to add an 5th class for the 2015-2016 K class.

Now for the numbers:

We'll have a minimum of a 33% chance of getting a seat in any of them. (225/689) This worst case scenario only plays out only if 100% of parents apply AND list these same 3 schools.

For 50-slot schools (Anderson, TAG, BSI, Q300), we have a minimum ~7.25% chance each (50/689). NEST+M's 125 slots give an 18% chance.

The actual odds should be quite a bit higher. There's limited data available on these so I can't predict how big or little a factor they'll be.

1) Some parents won't apply at all - maybe they've chosen a private school, a charter school, their GenEd school - we will all universally thank these parents. :)

2) Some parents will rank a different mix of schools, including district schools (more on this later)

3) Some will exclude schools from their consideration set altogether

4) And that some families will get in and defer their spot later on in favor of other choices. Just like #1, we will all thank these parents too. :)

For reference - here are the minimum odds for the same scenarios over the past 2 years (noting that there were 25 fewer slots at NEST in those years):

2015: 7.5% for a 50 slot school; 18% for NEST+M (689 99's)

2014: 5.1% for a 50 slot school; 10.2% for NEST+M (985 99's)

2013: 3.4% for a 50 slot school; 6.8% for NEST+M (1451 99's)

99's and top District School Schools:

As D2 parents who live in midtown, we'll likely rank Lower Lab ahead of TAG. LL has 50 slots, but those will be filled first with D2 applicants. Our raw odds of getting into LL are 50/121 (weak year for 99's in D2!) or 41%! But we also figure that many of those 121 will be applying to Anderson/NEST ahead of LL. If we just factor in those 2 schools alone (~25% odds), we'll chop the 121 down to 90 kids. So the realistic odds of getting into LL are likely going to be closer to 50/90 or 56%.

If you're a D3 parent, you're in even better luck if you like PS166 or any of the G&T programs in that district. Only 70 kids scored 99's. So you have a minimum 71% chance (50/70) of getting into Richard Rodgers. Awesome.

Do we know what the outcome of the at bat is going to be? No... but relatively speaking, you feel pretty good about the position you're in if you're a Jeter fan.

Here are my calculations, feel free to debunk them or add more color to them. Making this a mathematical exercise takes away some of the anxiety of the "gosh I really hope we get in" piece. My calculations do not factor in siblings. A parent in another thread noted that at worst ~10 siblings citywide get 97/98, so at worst this decreases odds ~.3%.

689 kids are eligible with 99th percentile.

As a D2 (Manhattan) parent, we're only going to apply to Anderson (50 K slots), NEST+M (125), and TAG (50) - BSI & Q300 would be far too hectic commutes, more than what we'd be willing to subject our child to. NEST is a bit special this year - they've been nice enough to add an 5th class for the 2015-2016 K class.

Now for the numbers:

We'll have a minimum of a 33% chance of getting a seat in any of them. (225/689) This worst case scenario only plays out only if 100% of parents apply AND list these same 3 schools.

For 50-slot schools (Anderson, TAG, BSI, Q300), we have a minimum ~7.25% chance each (50/689). NEST+M's 125 slots give an 18% chance.

The actual odds should be quite a bit higher. There's limited data available on these so I can't predict how big or little a factor they'll be.

1) Some parents won't apply at all - maybe they've chosen a private school, a charter school, their GenEd school - we will all universally thank these parents. :)

2) Some parents will rank a different mix of schools, including district schools (more on this later)

3) Some will exclude schools from their consideration set altogether

4) And that some families will get in and defer their spot later on in favor of other choices. Just like #1, we will all thank these parents too. :)

For reference - here are the minimum odds for the same scenarios over the past 2 years (noting that there were 25 fewer slots at NEST in those years):

2015: 7.5% for a 50 slot school; 18% for NEST+M (689 99's)

2014: 5.1% for a 50 slot school; 10.2% for NEST+M (985 99's)

2013: 3.4% for a 50 slot school; 6.8% for NEST+M (1451 99's)

99's and top District School Schools:

As D2 parents who live in midtown, we'll likely rank Lower Lab ahead of TAG. LL has 50 slots, but those will be filled first with D2 applicants. Our raw odds of getting into LL are 50/121 (weak year for 99's in D2!) or 41%! But we also figure that many of those 121 will be applying to Anderson/NEST ahead of LL. If we just factor in those 2 schools alone (~25% odds), we'll chop the 121 down to 90 kids. So the realistic odds of getting into LL are likely going to be closer to 50/90 or 56%.

If you're a D3 parent, you're in even better luck if you like PS166 or any of the G&T programs in that district. Only 70 kids scored 99's. So you have a minimum 71% chance (50/70) of getting into Richard Rodgers. Awesome.