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technomaster
04-16-2015, 12:13 PM
My short term obsession with G&T is a bit like the mathematical exercise you get watching sports, particularly baseball. For example, you may know that Derek Jeter is hitting .300 for the season, over the past 5 games is hitting .450 with a .600 OBP, and is 5-10 lifetime against Bartolo Colon.

Do we know what the outcome of the at bat is going to be? No... but relatively speaking, you feel pretty good about the position you're in if you're a Jeter fan.

Here are my calculations, feel free to debunk them or add more color to them. Making this a mathematical exercise takes away some of the anxiety of the "gosh I really hope we get in" piece. My calculations do not factor in siblings. A parent in another thread noted that at worst ~10 siblings citywide get 97/98, so at worst this decreases odds ~.3%.

689 kids are eligible with 99th percentile.

As a D2 (Manhattan) parent, we're only going to apply to Anderson (50 K slots), NEST+M (125), and TAG (50) - BSI & Q300 would be far too hectic commutes, more than what we'd be willing to subject our child to. NEST is a bit special this year - they've been nice enough to add an 5th class for the 2015-2016 K class.

Now for the numbers:
We'll have a minimum of a 33% chance of getting a seat in any of them. (225/689) This worst case scenario only plays out only if 100% of parents apply AND list these same 3 schools.

For 50-slot schools (Anderson, TAG, BSI, Q300), we have a minimum ~7.25% chance each (50/689). NEST+M's 125 slots give an 18% chance.

The actual odds should be quite a bit higher. There's limited data available on these so I can't predict how big or little a factor they'll be.
1) Some parents won't apply at all - maybe they've chosen a private school, a charter school, their GenEd school - we will all universally thank these parents. :)
2) Some parents will rank a different mix of schools, including district schools (more on this later)
3) Some will exclude schools from their consideration set altogether
4) And that some families will get in and defer their spot later on in favor of other choices. Just like #1, we will all thank these parents too. :)

For reference - here are the minimum odds for the same scenarios over the past 2 years (noting that there were 25 fewer slots at NEST in those years):

2015: 7.5% for a 50 slot school; 18% for NEST+M (689 99's)
2014: 5.1% for a 50 slot school; 10.2% for NEST+M (985 99's)
2013: 3.4% for a 50 slot school; 6.8% for NEST+M (1451 99's)

99's and top District School Schools:
As D2 parents who live in midtown, we'll likely rank Lower Lab ahead of TAG. LL has 50 slots, but those will be filled first with D2 applicants. Our raw odds of getting into LL are 50/121 (weak year for 99's in D2!) or 41%! But we also figure that many of those 121 will be applying to Anderson/NEST ahead of LL. If we just factor in those 2 schools alone (~25% odds), we'll chop the 121 down to 90 kids. So the realistic odds of getting into LL are likely going to be closer to 50/90 or 56%.

If you're a D3 parent, you're in even better luck if you like PS166 or any of the G&T programs in that district. Only 70 kids scored 99's. So you have a minimum 71% chance (50/70) of getting into Richard Rodgers. Awesome.

sroberts
04-16-2015, 12:43 PM
Nice analysis technomaster..
Did NEST+M announce the addition of 25 seats at the open house? Will they be adding a 5th class for all of the other lower school grades moving forward?

technomaster
04-16-2015, 01:09 PM
Nice analysis technomaster..
Did NEST+M announce the addition of 25 seats at the open house? Will they be adding a 5th class for all of the other lower school grades moving forward?

They announced it at the open house. They said that 5th grade currently has an extra bubble class. It won't be carried over to the middle school. That frees up the bubble class for our incoming K's.

Having that knowledge shouldn't technically impact how people apply to citywide. My core principles still apply - comfort level with the school & commute are the biggest factors. Academic differences are negligible.

I'm already excluding Q300 & BSI from our consideration set, and I'm already going to be a little queasy thinking about the commutes to Anderson or TAG. Love the idea of going to those schools, but my little guy is still only 4 years old!

Who knows, we may even chicken out on 4/23 and just list NEST and LL - and both of those would be at least 30 minutes on the bus each way. Game time decision.

VictoriaMir
04-16-2015, 02:34 PM
Sorry - what does it mean a 5th grade bubble class? Not sure I get it. Thank you.

nycparent
04-16-2015, 02:40 PM
When the current 5th grade were K school had one extra class, and they kept that extra class as kids grew from K to 5.
now the incoming K will have an extra class all the way till they graduate 5th grade.

technomaster
04-16-2015, 09:33 PM
@sroberts - NYC parent covered it. We'll be the beneficiaries of 25 extra slots.

I realized tonight at the Anderson open house that I need to revise the odds to account for sibling slots. A parent there shared that there are 20 confirmed K siblings at NEST+m (at the open house, the principal said it's usually 4 or so), so that effectively decreases the # of open slots from 125 to 105.
Anderson was kind enough to post that they have 7 siblings, so they they're down to 43 slots.
http://www.ps334school.org/admissions/open-house-nights

I'll subtract those 27 slots from the 689 qualifiers.

NEST+M odds fall from 18% down to 15.9% after this correction. (105/662)
Anderson odds fall from 7.5% to 6.5%. (43/662)

If this is typical, it's probably a fair assumption that siblings can impact odds by 10-15%.

In the case of district schools, siblings are potentially a bigger factor since the siblings only need to score 90+ instead of 97+.

KathW
04-17-2015, 05:54 AM
@sroberts - NYC parent covered it. We'll be the beneficiaries of 25 extra slots.

I realized tonight at the Anderson open house that I need to revise the odds to account for sibling slots. A parent there shared that there are 20 confirmed K siblings at NEST+m (at the open house, the principal said it's usually 4 or so), so that effectively decreases the # of open slots from 125 to 105.
Anderson was kind enough to post that they have 7 siblings, so they they're down to 43 slots.
http://www.ps334school.org/admissions/open-house-nights

I'll subtract those 27 slots from the 689 qualifiers.

NEST+M odds fall from 18% down to 15.9% after this correction. (105/662)
Anderson odds fall from 7.5% to 6.5%. (43/662)

If this is typical, it's probably a fair assumption that siblings can impact odds by 10-15%.

In the case of district schools, siblings are potentially a bigger factor since the siblings only need to score 90+ instead of 97+.

About half of the sibling spots at the citywide schools will go to siblings scoring 99% anyway. I agree it is a much bigger factor in the district schools. Last year there were 27 siblings at PS166. 23 or 85% of those qualified, so 23 of the 50 seats went to siblings. This year there are 33 siblings at PS166 so probably more than half of the seats will go to siblings! Most of those sibling seats go to children scoring 90-98%. I assume numbers will be similar in other district schools.

It's interesting, but very hard to try to calculate the odds of getting into a particular school especially since you don't know how other people rank the schools. Maybe more people can post their rankings?

technomaster
04-17-2015, 12:29 PM
It's interesting, but very hard to try to calculate the odds of getting into a particular school especially since you don't know how other people rank the schools. Maybe more people can post their rankings?

For district schools, the key numbers we need are:
* the # of siblings
* the amount of attrition in spite of sibling status. (presumably whether they get into a citywide, decide to go to the zoned school, or if the family moves to... NJ!)

Raw odds for 99'ers:
50 slots / 70 99'ers. 71% odds.

If we say there are a whopping 33 siblings (and assume those siblings all scored 99s like the brilliant 1st child), it looks like:

(50 - 33) / (70-33) = 17/37. 46% odds.

If 10 of those siblings drop out of the running and only 23 take spots, we've created 10 more spots while eliminating 10 eligible scorers.

(50-33+10)/(70-23-10) = 27/37. 73% odds.

Odds are likely even better than that. Single children still may get into a citywide, a D3 G&T, zoned school, or move to NJ, decreasing the eligible pool even further.

So the short of this is, if you're telling me there are 33 siblings and you scored a 99, your worst shot is 46%, but could fairly easily be over 73%.

If you didn't score a 99, the odds are definitely against you at PS166 - some folks talk about it as the "go-to" D3 district school. If you scored 98, you need to hope that 16 or fewer non-sibling D3 99'ers get placed in PS166.

And even then, you're still in the lottery against all of the 98 scorers for that 1 freed up slot that wasn't taken by a 99.

technomaster
04-17-2015, 12:36 PM
In short... I think we can make some projections around the impact of sibling priority on odds, so long as we have some indication of that number. There remain a number of variables.

Fact remains that given availability of slots across G&T for both citywide and district, there simply aren't enough slots available for children who score at or above the 90th percentile threshold to minimally qualify.

If you're not happy with the limited seats (I don't think anyone is!), get involved with the PACE organization. (that's what the Anderson folks suggested!)
http://citywideschools.org

KathW
04-17-2015, 05:24 PM
For district schools, the key numbers we need are:
* the # of siblings
* the amount of attrition in spite of sibling status. (presumably whether they get into a citywide, decide to go to the zoned school, or if the family moves to... NJ!)

Raw odds for 99'ers:
50 slots / 70 99'ers. 71% odds.

If we say there are a whopping 33 siblings (and assume those siblings all scored 99s like the brilliant 1st child), it looks like:

(50 - 33) / (70-33) = 17/37. 46% odds.

If 10 of those siblings drop out of the running and only 23 take spots, we've created 10 more spots while eliminating 10 eligible scorers.

(50-33+10)/(70-23-10) = 27/37. 73% odds.

Odds are likely even better than that. Single children still may get into a citywide, a D3 G&T, zoned school, or move to NJ, decreasing the eligible pool even further.

So the short of this is, if you're telling me there are 33 siblings and you scored a 99, your worst shot is 46%, but could fairly easily be over 73%.

If you didn't score a 99, the odds are definitely against you at PS166 - assuming it is the top D3 choices that isn't a citywide. If you scored 98, you need to hope that 16 or fewer non-sibling D3 99'ers get placed in PS166.

And even then, you're still in the lottery against all of the 98 scorers for that 1 freed up slot that wasn't taken by a 99.

Thanks for your thorough analysis! My child scored 98, so now I'm hoping a lot of the siblings didn't score high enough and many of the 99% kids move to NJ, go to their zoned or private schools or get into Citywides. Otherwise I'm sure the regular program at PS166 is fine too.

district15dad
04-22-2015, 11:57 AM
If you're a D3 parent, you're in even better luck if you like PS166 or any of the G&T programs in that district. Only 70 kids scored 99's. So you have a minimum 71% chance (50/70) of getting into Richard Rodgers. Awesome.

This brings up what is the key unknown for me, which is how many of the 99s are not going to try to go to citywide schools. Do private school kids, kids who got into Hunter, kids who are particularly fond of their zoned school or a district G&T make up 25% of the pool? 50%?

Of course there's the question of how many kids only apply to the citywide that you're interested in. 199 of the kids who got 99% are in districts 20-22 and while I could be wrong it's hard for me to imagine many of those kids going to Anderson (or even NEST+ although I know many families commit to travelling a long, long way for their kids) (on the other hand, that makes the BSI application brutal: it's the clear superior geographical choice for 200 kids at may be preferable for many in district 15, so you have about 40 non sibling seats for 200-250 applicants.

Some other thoughts:

Queens has about 120 kids who scored 99. There's a real need for Q300. I know kids go from Queens to lots of citywide schools, especially NEST, but that is a haul and a half. Apparently there's a bit of a Queens-TAG pipeline developing as well.

They must be putting something in the water in districts 20-22-199 99s between the three of them (that's almost as many as all of Manhattan, which has 215). You'd think a lot of those folks will list BSI first, the question is how many will list a citywide second given the distance and the large number of district G&T programs. More northern parts of Brooklyn--Park slope, Brooklyn Heights, DUMBO, Williamsburg--combine for about 90 99s. That's going to be a BSI/NEST split but I don't think many of those kids would go to TAG/Anderson/Q300 given the distance.

nycparent
04-22-2015, 12:18 PM
It's too complicated to calculate the odds and is not necessary given the current way how DOE assigns the schools. Parents just have to rank the school according to their preference.

By putting Andersen before NEST does not hurt your chance of getting into NEST. At the end of the day its your "seed" from the random assignment that matters.

KathW
04-22-2015, 12:38 PM
This brings up what is the key unknown for me, which is how many of the 99s are not going to try to go to citywide schools. Do private school kids, kids who got into Hunter, kids who are particularly fond of their zoned school or a district G&T make up 25% of the pool? 50%?

Of course there's the question of how many kids only apply to the citywide that you're interested in. 199 of the kids who got 99% are in districts 20-22 and while I could be wrong it's hard for me to imagine many of those kids going to Anderson (or even NEST+ although I know many families commit to travelling a long, long way for their kids) (on the other hand, that makes the BSI application brutal: it's the clear superior geographical choice for 200 kids at may be preferable for many in district 15, so you have about 40 non sibling seats for 200-250 applicants.

Some other thoughts:

Queens has about 120 kids who scored 99. There's a real need for Q300. I know kids go from Queens to lots of citywide schools, especially NEST, but that is a haul and a half. Apparently there's a bit of a Queens-TAG pipeline developing as well.

They must be putting something in the water in districts 20-22-199 99s between the three of them (that's almost as many as all of Manhattan, which has 215). You'd think a lot of those folks will list BSI first, the question is how many will list a citywide second given the distance and the large number of district G&T programs. More northern parts of Brooklyn--Park slope, Brooklyn Heights, DUMBO, Williamsburg--combine for about 90 99s. That's going to be a BSI/NEST split but I don't think many of those kids would go to TAG/Anderson/Q300 given the distance.

I tried to find data on this too, but I think only the DOE knows. The data on the 'Kindergarten summery by district table' shows that 85% of those that were eligible applied last year. However, many of those that didn't apply may not apply because their score was closer to 90 and they didn't bother. Of those that applied 75% received an offer. Interestingly, they appear to give out way more offers than there are places, for example District 3 received 202 offers. However, there are only a 100 district wide spots. I can't imagine that 100 D3 kids got citywide spots. According to my calculations it would be closer to 30. Does this mean 70 kids got offers, but declined? Maybe many of the 99 scorers try to get a Citywide spot closer to home, but if they don't, they end up choosing their zoned or private school? Why would so many list schools they don't want to go to? It beats me!

I agree that a lot of people must rank BSI, Nest and Q300 first because of vicinity.

technomaster
04-22-2015, 12:57 PM
This brings up what is the key unknown for me, which is how many of the 99s are not going to try to go to citywide schools. Do private school kids, kids who got into Hunter, kids who are particularly fond of their zoned school or a district G&T make up 25% of the pool? 50%?

<snip>

Awesome post. Lots of good thoughts - I agree. This goes back to my original note - just because we know the odds, does that change anything? Nothing will change the outcome. The odds are purely here for entertainment purposes.

My best attempt is rather simplified: the model assumings the worst case odds if everyone makes exactly the same choices as you, whatever those choices are. As you eloquently pointed out, we know that's not a real scenario. We have little (no) data to work with. I think a bunch of parents here are trying to play out the virtual lottery scenario. It's kind of like watching World Series of Poker on TV - you see the raw odds based on what cards are showing. The player hasn't done anything, but as additional cards are shown, the %'s change. I'm curious if someone bluntly asked the DOE for deeper data on 99 eligible behavior, if they'd make it public. There's nothing proprietary about it since they've already published a lot of numbers.

Some assumptions for 99s:
* nearly all families will list the closest geographic citywide first. (the exception being folks on the UES who have LowerLab as an option. There aren't any east side G&T programs until you get waaay downtown near NEST+M; I know of no other district programs that are G&T only). I think PS166 is close enough to Anderson that parents are extremely likely to list Anderson first, just because there's nothing to lose if they don't get in.
* Queens, it'd be most logical to list Q300 1st, BSI is a possibility, so is TAG
* Brooklyn, you'll likely list BSI 1st, NEST+M second, Q300 is a possibility.
* Manhattan, you'll likely choose the closest school first.
- West Side (all the way north and south) - Anderson (if you're a D3, you'll almost certainly choose 166 2nd)
- Midtown East and below, lower manhattan: NEST+M, (if you're in D2, you'll likely choose LL 2nd)
- UES and north: LL, TAG, NEST, and probably Anderson.
* Bronx: TAG is easiest
* Staten Island... not sure, NEST+M, BSI?

Maybe you could chalk up the district tallies and make some assumptions. (note that there's a lot of messiness where D2 collides with D3)

A few other wildcards:
Twins. While the rules seem to state otherwise, apparently citywide eligible twins get to go where the higher scoring twin goes. (in these cases, I'm curious if this eats a seat or if they're willing to add an add'l seat to accommodate)
Siblings. (schools in open houses are pretty transparent about sharing sibling counts)
Parents who commute between boroughs may apply to the closest location to their place of work.
People with cars.

D2 had a particularly low 99 year. Only 121 students made it. Maybe those families moved to D20-22. :)

district15dad
04-22-2015, 01:45 PM
It would be absolutely fascinating to see what the lottery cutoff is for all of these schools. I'll bet in most years BSI and Lower Lab are the first to fill up (doesn't LL have a sibling preferences down to 90, which would make about half of D2 test takers eligible for the sibling preferences?), followed quickly by Anderson but after that, who knows? Some of the D20-22 G&T programs must be awfully hard to get into, 166 is obviously a great school in an area with a lot of high scorers. You're also going to have some weird results--it's not too hard to fill up a district wide G&T program if there's only one G&T classroom and a bunch of siblings all of the sudden maybe a school like PS132 in Williamsburg just randomly fills up incredibly quickly if there are a bunch of little siblings and if the kids who get 99s from district 14 happen to be from families who want to stay local for school.

nycparent
04-22-2015, 01:56 PM
I guess every year will be different. Since a lot of these are small schools (2 classed per grade) it has to do with how many siblings are applying.

Two years ago (2008 born) NEST filled before BSI, then last year BSI filled before NEST.

district15dad
04-22-2015, 02:11 PM
I guess every year will be different. Since a lot of these are small schools (2 classed per grade) it has to do with how many siblings are applying.

Two years ago (2008 born) NEST filled before BSI, then last year BSI filled before NEST.

Without a doubt--between the small size and the luck of the draw (lets pretend each citywide is the first choice of 20% of the applicants--it wouldn't be that unusual for any of them to fill 40 non sibling spots within the first 150 picks in a lottery) there's going to be a lot of variability.

KathW
04-22-2015, 02:31 PM
Without a doubt--between the small size and the luck of the draw (lets pretend each citywide is the first choice of 20% of the applicants--it wouldn't be that unusual for any of them to fill 40 non sibling spots within the first 150 picks in a lottery) there's going to be a lot of variability.


If each citywide is the choice of 1/5th of the applicants the 40 non sibling spots in each are going to be filled after approximately 40*5= 200 picks. It will take longer to fill up Nest.

district15dad
04-22-2015, 03:25 PM
If each citywide is the choice of 1/5th of the applicants the 40 non sibling spots in each are going to be filled after approximately 40*5= 200 picks. It will take longer to fill up Nest.

Sure--and it could be faster depending on the actual distribution of lottery picks. If 30% of kids chose a particular school (lets say everybody that applies from districts 20-22 picks BSI first and nobody else places it on their list--that's 30% of the pool of 199s) there's a 35% chance 40 spots are filled by the 125th pick in the lottery and an 85% it's filled up by the 125th pick it's filled up by the 150th pick.

KathW
04-22-2015, 04:50 PM
Sure--and it could be faster depending on the actual distribution of lottery picks. If 30% of kids chose a particular school (lets say everybody that applies from districts 20-22 picks BSI first and nobody else places it on their list--that's 30% of the pool of 199s) there's a 35% chance 40 spots are filled by the 125th pick in the lottery and an 85% it's filled up by the 125th pick it's filled up by the 150th pick.

Not sure whether I followed that. I would think that if 30% of 99% chooses BSI than BSI seats should be taken after approx 3.3*40= 121 picks.

One thing that you should also take into account when calculating the odds it that many of the 99% will take up sibling seats in the district wide schools and won't be competing for the city wide schools. There are about 2000 district wide seats. If approximately 30% of those seats go siblings scoring 90%+, siblings will take up 600 of the 2000 district wide seats. 689 scored 99%, 4299 scored 90%+, which means that approximately 16% (689/4299) of those 600 seats, or 96 kids that scored 99% have siblings seats in district wide schools. Approximately 19 Nest +7 Anderson +5 Tag + 5 + 5 = 41 city wide seats go to siblings. 1511 kids scored 97%+. This means that approx 45% (689/1511) of 41 or 18 city wide seats go to siblings scoring 99%. In conclusion, approx. 96+18 = 114 of the 99% scoring kids will have sibling seats.

Of course some of these kids with sibling seats in district wide schools may still apply for city wide, but probably the majority won't. Let's say 100 of the 114 end up going to their sibling's school, than there are only 689 - 100 = 589 kids applying for 325-41= 284 citywide seats. That makes the odds for a citywide seat 284/589= 0.48 or 48% Plus then there are the kids that moved or that got into Hunter or private schools and those putting the citywide seats first.

district15dad
04-22-2015, 05:39 PM
Not sure whether I followed that. I would think that if 30% of 99% chooses BSI than BSI seats should be taken after approx 3.3*40= 121 picks.

One thing that you should also take into account when calculating the odds it that many of the 99% will take up sibling seats in the district wide schools and won't be competing for the city wide schools. There are about 2000 district wide seats. If approximately 30% of those seats go siblings scoring 90%+, siblings will take up 600 of the 2000 district wide seats. 689 scored 99%, 4299 scored 90%+, which means that approximately 16% (689/4299) of those 600 seats, or 96 kids that scored 99% have siblings seats in district wide schools. Approximately 19 Nest +7 Anderson +5 Tag + 5 + 5 = 41 city wide seats go to siblings. 1511 kids scored 97%+. This means that approx 45% (689/1511) of 41 or 18 city wide seats go to siblings scoring 99%. In conclusion, approx. 96+18 = 114 of the 99% scoring kids will have sibling seats.

Of course some of these kids with sibling seats in district wide schools may still apply for city wide, but probably the majority won't. Let's say 100 of the 114 end up going to their sibling's school, than there are only 689 - 100 = 589 kids applying for 325-41= 284 citywide seats. That makes the odds for a citywide seat 284/589= 0.48 or 48% Plus then there are the kids that moved or that got into Hunter or private schools and those putting the citywide seats first.


I hope you're right about the siblings! My eldest is going through this right now and I'd really like a citywide placement.

My point on the numbers was that, based on chance, particular schools could fill up really quickly or really slowly--you it's not all that weird to flip coins 50 times and get 30 heads, and it wouldn't be that weird for, say, the folks who love Q300 to do particularly well in the lottery and fill that school up quickly.

Merimom
04-22-2015, 05:43 PM
My head hurts!

district15dad
04-22-2015, 06:53 PM
My head hurts!

So does mine! Looks like the kind of question we need our kids to answer...

technomaster
04-23-2015, 12:09 AM
Y'all got me thinking. Here are revised odds based on the outcomes of the 99 scorers.

What we know is that 100% of the seats at each citywide school will be filled with 99s. I'll include Lower Lab into this exercise since they're all 99s for a total of 375 potential seats.

For the sake of simplicity, I'll assume that the impact of non-99 siblings, twins, and general attrition (abstaining from applying or dropouts even after offers) will even out.

Looking at Anderson:
Starting with a pool of 689, let's subtract all of the students that will go to another 99 school.

689-325=364
Raw odds:
50/364= 13.7%
With 7 siblings.
43/357= 12.0%


The 12.0% is a much more accurate number than the 7.5% min for a 50-slot school that I presented in my original post.

NEST+M looks like this:
125/439= 28.5%
After siblings:
106/420= 25.2%

If you're applying to multiple schools, just add up the % for each of the school and that's your chance of winning the lottery for a 99 school. In my case, we're looking at TAG, Anderson, LL, and NEST+M. Just as a ballpark number, 12+12+12+25=61% net odds of ending up in a a seat in any of those programs.

Notes:
* If we want to refine this further, we can speculate that at least 50 (if not 100+) kids with 99 will rank a nearby district G&T before exhausting their citywide opportunities. If I lived near PS 193 (vs BSI) or PS166 (vs Anderson), I'd probably list those as 1st or 2nd choices. - please speak up if you're aware of any others that only take 99s. (if I take 100 kids out of the pool, my net odds jump to 81%)
* Is it valid to subtract a certain % of the Hunter/Special music school kids? (first we have to make an assumption on the # of those students that scored 99, then remove up to all of them)
* I'm in D2, so my son's raw odds at that Lower Lab school are actually much higher than the 12%. Raw odds of 50/121. ~12 siblings. 38/109 = 34.9% odds for that particular school. Can I just add this # alongside the others? I don't think so.

Merimom
04-23-2015, 06:47 AM
Y'all got me thinking. Here are revised odds based on the outcomes of the 99 scorers.

What we know is that 100% of the seats at each citywide school will be filled with 99s. I'll include Lower Lab into this exercise since they're all 99s for a total of 375 potential seats.

For the sake of simplicity, I'll assume that the impact of non-99 siblings, twins, and general attrition (abstaining from applying or dropouts even after offers) will even out.

Looking at Anderson:
Starting with a pool of 689, let's subtract all of the students that will go to another 99 school.

689-325=364
Raw odds:
50/364= 13.7%
With 7 siblings.
43/357= 12.0%


The 12.0% is a much more accurate number than the 7.5% min for a 50-slot school that I presented in my original post.

NEST+M looks like this:
125/439= 28.5%
After siblings:
106/420= 25.2%

If you're applying to multiple schools, just add up the % for each of the school and that's your chance of winning the lottery for a 99 school. In my case, we're looking at TAG, Anderson, LL, and NEST+M. Just as a ballpark number, 12+12+12+25=61% net odds of ending up in a a seat in any of those programs.

Notes:
* If we want to refine this further, we can speculate that at least 50 (if not 100+) kids with 99 will rank a nearby district G&T before exhausting their citywide opportunities. If I lived near PS 193 (vs BSI) or PS166 (vs Anderson), I'd probably list those as 1st or 2nd choices. - please speak up if you're aware of any others that only take 99s. (if I take 100 kids out of the pool, my net odds jump to 81%)
* Is it valid to subtract a certain % of the Hunter/Special music school kids? (first we have to make an assumption on the # of those students that scored 99, then remove up to all of them)
* I'm in D2, so my son's raw odds at that Lower Lab school are actually much higher than the 12%. Raw odds of 50/121. ~12 siblings. 38/109 = 34.9% odds for that particular school. Can I just add this # alongside the others? I don't think so.

Interesting stats, again, Techno. Is this what is keeping you up at night???

We are also D2, 99%. LL is our first choice. One of the factors for us is that our older child is in a neighborhood school. She scored a 94%. There is a slight chance that both girls could end up at LL, which is why we are putting it first. If either girl had a spot at Hunter we would have taken it over any city or district programs. No discussion. I cannot imagine that anyone else would do anything differently.

district15dad
04-23-2015, 07:48 AM
Y'all got me thinking. Here are revised odds based on the outcomes of the 99 scorers.

What we know is that 100% of the seats at each citywide school will be filled with 99s. I'll include Lower Lab into this exercise since they're all 99s for a total of 375 potential seats.

For the sake of simplicity, I'll assume that the impact of non-99 siblings, twins, and general attrition (abstaining from applying or dropouts even after offers) will even out.

Looking at Anderson:
Starting with a pool of 689, let's subtract all of the students that will go to another 99 school.

689-325=364
Raw odds:
50/364= 13.7%
With 7 siblings.
43/357= 12.0%


The 12.0% is a much more accurate number than the 7.5% min for a 50-slot school that I presented in my original post.

NEST+M looks like this:
125/439= 28.5%
After siblings:
106/420= 25.2%

If you're applying to multiple schools, just add up the % for each of the school and that's your chance of winning the lottery for a 99 school. In my case, we're looking at TAG, Anderson, LL, and NEST+M. Just as a ballpark number, 12+12+12+25=61% net odds of ending up in a a seat in any of those programs.

Notes:
* If we want to refine this further, we can speculate that at least 50 (if not 100+) kids with 99 will rank a nearby district G&T before exhausting their citywide opportunities. If I lived near PS 193 (vs BSI) or PS166 (vs Anderson), I'd probably list those as 1st or 2nd choices. - please speak up if you're aware of any others that only take 99s. (if I take 100 kids out of the pool, my net odds jump to 81%)
* Is it valid to subtract a certain % of the Hunter/Special music school kids? (first we have to make an assumption on the # of those students that scored 99, then remove up to all of them)
* I'm in D2, so my son's raw odds at that Lower Lab school are actually much higher than the 12%. Raw odds of 50/121. ~12 siblings. 38/109 = 34.9% odds for that particular school. Can I just add this # alongside the others? I don't think so.

It's certainly valid but it's pure guesswork.

Hunter takes 50 kids a year. They all get 99s on the Hunter test. They find out if they get in early February--basically right after G&T testing concludes-and have to commit to the school almost instantly-so most of the kids applying to Hunter take the G&T test as well. But how closely does a 99 on Hunter correlate with a 99 on this year's G&T test? I'll bet it's pretty close--the kids who got 99s on Hunter could probably get 99s on the G&T test on vice versa on any given day-but the results may vary. My WAG is that about 20 of the Hunter kids also got 99s on the G&T test.

Special Music school takes about 15 kids a year based on an assessment of musical aptitude. If there are kids going there who got 99s it's not going to be many.

Incidentally the Manhattanites are in a really good position for placement. You've only got about 200 kids who scored 99s, a bunch of great district schools, and a bunch of kids are already out of the pool because of Hunter and possibly private schools,

District 4 Dad
04-23-2015, 08:27 AM
It's certainly valid but it's pure guesswork.

Hunter takes 50 kids a year. They all get 99s on the Hunter test. They find out if they get in early February--basically right after G&T testing concludes-and have to commit to the school almost instantly-so most of the kids applying to Hunter take the G&T test as well. But how closely does a 99 on Hunter correlate with a 99 on this year's G&T test? I'll bet it's pretty close--the kids who got 99s on Hunter could probably get 99s on the G&T test on vice versa on any given day-but the results may vary. My WAG is that about 20 of the Hunter kids also got 99s on the G&T test.

Special Music school takes about 15 kids a year based on an assessment of musical aptitude. If there are kids going there who got 99s it's not going to be many.

Incidentally the Manhattanites are in a really good position for placement. You've only got about 200 kids who scored 99s, a bunch of great district schools, and a bunch of kids are already out of the pool because of Hunter and possibly private schools,

Very good analysis. The deadline is here. Another waiting game starts. Our choices are simple, only 3. We will be joyful as long as the outcome is not the 4th, aka "none of above". Good luck to all.

rimas
04-23-2015, 09:22 AM
I happen to know somebody whose son got accepted at Hunter in Feb. But, since he had already taken the G&T test in Jan. He got the result-99. Mom enrolled him in G&T as well at the same time. He got accepted at Anderson( in the very first shot!). At some point later, then she declined the Anderson seat.

Merimom
04-23-2015, 10:08 AM
I run a preschool also- knowing from family chatter. There are many children who qualify for round 2 of hunter who do not get 99s on GT. And many kids who get 99s for gt and do not qualify for Hunter. There are so many variables- comfort level with tester, how child slept the night before, the time of day, their response to environment, how comfortable the tester made them feel, etc. In fact, for all of our kids, if they took the test on a different day, maybe they would have scored completely differently.

CityWideMom
04-23-2015, 10:25 AM
Y'all got me thinking. Here are revised odds based on the outcomes of the 99 scorers.

What we know is that 100% of the seats at each citywide school will be filled with 99s. I'll include Lower Lab into this exercise since they're all 99s for a total of 375 potential seats.

For the sake of simplicity, I'll assume that the impact of non-99 siblings, twins, and general attrition (abstaining from applying or dropouts even after offers) will even out.

Looking at Anderson:
Starting with a pool of 689, let's subtract all of the students that will go to another 99 school.

689-325=364
Raw odds:
50/364= 13.7%
With 7 siblings.
43/357= 12.0%


The 12.0% is a much more accurate number than the 7.5% min for a 50-slot school that I presented in my original post.

NEST+M looks like this:
125/439= 28.5%
After siblings:
106/420= 25.2%

If you're applying to multiple schools, just add up the % for each of the school and that's your chance of winning the lottery for a 99 school. In my case, we're looking at TAG, Anderson, LL, and NEST+M. Just as a ballpark number, 12+12+12+25=61% net odds of ending up in a a seat in any of those programs.

Notes:
* If we want to refine this further, we can speculate that at least 50 (if not 100+) kids with 99 will rank a nearby district G&T before exhausting their citywide opportunities. If I lived near PS 193 (vs BSI) or PS166 (vs Anderson), I'd probably list those as 1st or 2nd choices. - please speak up if you're aware of any others that only take 99s. (if I take 100 kids out of the pool, my net odds jump to 81%)
* Is it valid to subtract a certain % of the Hunter/Special music school kids? (first we have to make an assumption on the # of those students that scored 99, then remove up to all of them)
* I'm in D2, so my son's raw odds at that Lower Lab school are actually much higher than the 12%. Raw odds of 50/121. ~12 siblings. 38/109 = 34.9% odds for that particular school. Can I just add this # alongside the others? I don't think so.


Technomaster,

Where do you get the 689 number for 99. Shouldn't it be 948 ?

Is the following link inaccurate ?
http://www.theschoolboards.com/showthread.php/3862-NYC-gifted-and-talented-summary-testing-results-2014-2015

District 4 Dad
04-23-2015, 10:29 AM
.. In fact, for all of our kids, if they took the test on a different day, maybe they would have scored completely differently.
I agree with this 100%. If my girl takes the test again, she may have 4, 5, or more wrong answers in each section instead of none. A good result needs lots of preparation and practice. It also needs lots more luck.

District 4 Dad
04-23-2015, 10:32 AM
Technomaster,

Where do you get the 689 number for 99. Shouldn't it be 948 ?

Is the following link inaccurate ?
http://www.theschoolboards.com/showthread.php/3862-NYC-gifted-and-talented-summary-testing-results-2014-2015

That was last year. 689 for K in 2015.

VictoriaMir
04-23-2015, 10:43 AM
That was last year. 689 for K in 2015.


see the 2015 results here:


http://schools.nyc.gov/ChoicesEnrollment/GiftedandTalented/Resources/default.htm

Dist3
04-23-2015, 12:15 PM
It's certainly valid but it's pure guesswork.

Hunter takes 50 kids a year. They all get 99s on the Hunter test. They find out if they get in early February--basically right after G&T testing concludes-and have to commit to the school almost instantly-so most of the kids applying to Hunter take the G&T test as well. But how closely does a 99 on Hunter correlate with a 99 on this year's G&T test? I'll bet it's pretty close--the kids who got 99s on Hunter could probably get 99s on the G&T test on vice versa on any given day-but the results may vary. My WAG is that about 20 of the Hunter kids also got 99s on the G&T test.

Special Music school takes about 15 kids a year based on an assessment of musical aptitude. If there are kids going there who got 99s it's not going to be many.

Incidentally the Manhattanites are in a really good position for placement. You've only got about 200 kids who scored 99s, a bunch of great district schools, and a bunch of kids are already out of the pool because of Hunter and possibly private schools,

Our son scored 152 for the Hunter SB, but got a 98% for the G and T. The hunter test is quite different than the G and T. And I know another girl from my son's preschool who scored 145 SB (99%) and 95% in the G and T.

District 4 Dad
04-23-2015, 01:19 PM
It's actually a little higher than 689 since districts with less than 10 kids qualifying don't report.

You are incorrect. 689 is the total. DoE put down a "s" instead of a single digital number. Is there any law that prohibits them showing 0 to 9? :confused::confused:

technomaster
04-23-2015, 02:00 PM
You are incorrect. 689 is the total. DoE put down a "s" instead of a single digital number. Is there any law that prohibits them showing 0 to 9?

SMH. It's pretty disturbing. They don't want to give any districts a complex if they get 0... though you should be proud your child is one of the numberless. :)

CityWideMom
04-23-2015, 06:08 PM
I think it is more about privacy. If the numbers are too small... everyone in the neighborhood knows than except Jack & Jill all other kids are "slow" ...

.... ( just a joke.... don't jump me)

District 4 Dad
04-23-2015, 06:28 PM
DoE did report "7 Black students admitted to Stuyvesant High School" last year. But they could not show "7 kids achieved 99% in district 7" this year. What a bunch of bs.