Q300 parent here. The best way to get this information is to attend the open houses where you will find out both the # of seats available and the # of siblings vying for those seats (and, therefore, how many seats are left over for non-sibs). If that's not an option, I recommend looking up the class size data ( http://schools.nyc.gov/AboutUs/schoo.../classsize.htm ) and extrapolating. For example, most citywides used to go up in class size from 25 students in K to 28/29 in 1st. If that's the case, Q300 would have 8-9 seats for 1st. However, if you look at the data for NEST, BSI, and TAG you will notice that their class sized went up to 30/31 students, which potentially means 24 1st grade seats at NEST, and 12 at TAG and BSI (minus siblings, of course). I have heard that the DOE has been pushing for the citywides to expand their class sized beyond the preferred 28/29 so this may be a trend coming to all 5 schools.
As for 2nd grade seats, those usually open up only due to attrition. Most of the citywides look like they have their classes full for that grade, although if the DOE forces the maximum expansion there may be 1 or 2 seats opening up (but if you factor in siblings--including those of incoming K--that may realistically turn to 0). But, again, only the schools can tell you for sure.
Not accounting for sibling priority:
Probability of getting a city-wide seat for 99th percentile is: 63/191 = ~32.9%
Assuming nearly 20% of seats (say 12 out of 63) go to Siblings AND all siblings are either 97p or 98p (not 99p):
Probability of landing a city-wide seat = 51/191 = ~ 26.7%
Actual probability could be higher if:
1. Siblings include 99p
- e.g. assuming all siblings have obtained 99p, probability changes to 51/179 = ~ 28.5%
2. Not everyone applies to all city-wides.
e.g. Folks only applying to the nearest couple of city-wide schools, folks opting for private schools, moving out of NYC etc.
Hard to estimate chances in this situation, without knowing how many applications each school will receive.
Actual probability would be lower if more than 20% of seats go to siblings.
- e.g. if nearly 30% of seats (say 18 out of 63) are allocated to siblings, chances of getting a seat reduce to 45/191 = 23.5%
Note that the schools will say how many seats are available on the tours. Last year, Anderson said on the tour that they only had one seat available out of the 6, because of the siblings. It would be great if folks could post the info in this thread when they hear from the schools.
Anderson - 5
NEST - 11
TAG - 8
BSI - 8
Q300 - 6
Worst case odds for non-sibling 99'ers (assuming all siblings are either 97 or 98 and everyone applies to all the schools): 38/191 = 19.9%
So, barely 1 out of 5 chance of winning the citywide lottery for first grade